all eyes on Abyei.

On July 22, the Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague will rule on Abyei’s borders.  As some of you know, the borders that surround it remain disputed.  In 2005, when the peace agreement was signed that ended Sudan’s long civil conflict, there was special consideration given to the Abyei area, traditionally defined as the “area of the nine Ngok Dinka chiefdoms transferred to Kordofan in 1905″.  An earlier attempt to broker a truce between north and south, the The Machakos Protocol initially used the administrative border left by the British in 1956, placing Abyei firmly in the north.  This was contended by the SPLM and became a stumbling block for further peace negotiations.  In 2004  The Protocol on the Resolution of the Conflict in Abyei Area was signed, ending the deadlock by giving Abyei special administrative status where its residents were members of BOTH north and south (Western Kordofan and Bahr el Ghazal states) and had representation in each legislature.  Importantly, oil would be shared between the signatories, almost 50/50.  The area of Abyei, that of the “nine Ngok Dinka chiefdoms” would be determined by an independent group, the “Abyei Border Commission”, with representation from Khartoum, SPLM, and five international arbitrators.

The ABC delivered their decision in July 2005, and the Khartoum government said the report would be “studied”, while the SPLM considered it final and binding.  The two sides disagreed on the ABC’s mandate, the North claiming it was to rule on a small part of the land transferred in 1905, the South adamant that it was to determine the entire extent of the nine chiefdoms.  Though the area is important for historical reasons, there are petroleum ones  too.  Most of the oil, outside of the South, comes from the Abyei region. By making it larger, it encompasses more of the wells, and each side is intent on participating in the final arbitration as much as possible.  For an excellent summary, read the article “Why Abyei Matters” by Douglas Johnson here.  And a quick plug for all authors to self-archive their material on the web where it can be accessed for free, and use, where possible, creative commons licensing. Shhh.

Now the matter is in front of the Hague.  At stake is whether the ABC exceeded its mandate.  If so, a new line might be drawn.  Either way, one’s gain is another’s loss, and history is clear that land is what we war over most.  There are already reports of soldiers moving into the area in anticipation of Wednesday’s decision.  Though there will be international observers in the area to watch for conflict, it is a tense time.  It is only a year ago that Abyei town was burned to the ground from the friction between the two sides.

This Wednesday, July 22, peace in Sudan will face a great test.  Many speculate that if the Comprehensive Peace Agreement is not respected, if it faces barriers to its implementation (and Abyei is its greatest), then armistice will be almost impossible to broker in Darfur, and the whole region will once again descend into a war from which it only recently emerged.

All eyes on Abyei.